Friday, August 1, 2008

Can 6/7 keycard flips really be wrong?

01/08/08 Courtyard Marriott, Los Altos, CA

When it seems like all the tidbits of information in the world will not help you make a decision there are a few things you can do. You can try and do more research, you can try and speak to people who have been in a position where they've needed to make a similar decision, you can use decision and risk analysis tools that transform the made up numbers you put in them into seemingly more plausible made up numbers when the results come out the other side.

Or you could play heads or tails with a hotel keycard and be equally convinced by getting 6 out of 7 in favour of one destination.

The best option may be to accept that with what seems to be a 50/50, while no decision can be considered to be the right one there is equally no reason to consider it the wrong one either. Today the seesaw is tilted toward Mexico and that's as good a decision as any. Sombreros in hand with an itching for tequila we aim to head south of the border.

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